A strong La Niña forming in the Pacific replaces El Niño

The region could be setting up this coming winter for a 180-degree turnaround from last year when winter lived up to its name.

A rapidly strengthening La Niña has taken shape, the National Weather Service (NWS) office at Albuquerque said in a special briefing this week.

Many people are familiar with El Niño, and its typical increase in precipitation, often felt in southern New Mexico. The El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) de-scribes sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and its affects on weather.

"When we go from an El Niño to a La Niña, what's actually happening is we're getting changes in the sea surface temperatures," said NWS meteorologist Deirdre Kann. "So with this present La Niña we have temperatures that are colder than normal in the sea surface temperatures in the eastern portion of the tropical Pacific."

The temperatures are monitored by an array of buoys in the ocean. The readings show La Nina conditions are increasing.

"And what we have seen lately is that the El Niño of the winter we just came out of, 2009-2010, faded rapidly in the spring of 2010 and now we have, just as rapidly, preceded down in the La Niña portion of the ENSO cycle here in the early fall of 2010," said NWS hydrologist Ed Polasko. And you have to go back to about 1955 before you find a stronger La Niña condition for this early in the fall."

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